Estimating the probable maximum flood (PMF) in Andean basins by combining atmospheric and surface runoff models

Estimating the probable maximum flood (PMF) with WRF maximized storms and uncertainty analysis

The probable maximum flood (PMF) is a key parameter in the design of hydraulic infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs. It represents the theoretical maximum discharge that extreme precipitation can produce.

Building on the group's research, this master's thesis will use output from WRF, an atmospheric model that simulates the spatial distribution of maximized storms, as input to runoff models (for example, SWEpy, HEC-HMS, SWAT or VIC). You will assess the floods those storms would produce in Andean basins, considering topography, soils and land use, to improve flood risk estimates in a context of climate change. You will also analyze model uncertainty to quantify the variability across scenarios.

Objectives

• Process WRF output to produce spatial distributions of maximized storms as input to the runoff models.
• Implement and compare different surface runoff models (for example, SWEpy, HEC-HMS, SWAT and VIC) in selected basins.
• Simulate the PMF under maximized storm scenarios and assess its sensitivity to variables such as spatial intensity and duration.
• Analyze the uncertainty from WRF and the runoff models, and propose improvements for hydraulic design.